How Total Campaign Budgets Help Seasonal Promotions: A Dry January PPC Case Study

Start fast: Seasonal PPC is a sprint, not a slow burn — and budget confusion kills returns

If your team spends January tweaking daily budgets while search volume spikes and competitors outbid you, you already know the pain: wasted time, inconsistent pacing, and missed conversions. For marketers and site owners scaling seasonal promotions, the solution that has moved from experimental to essential in 2026 is setting a total campaign budget and coupling it with deliberate pacing, keyword priorities, and measurement rules. This article uses a real-world-style Dry January PPC case study to show how to plan total budgets, pace spend, pick winning seasonal keywords, and forecast expected ROI.

Executive summary — the quick win

Google’s rollout of total campaign budgets for Search and Shopping (expanded in January 2026) removes the constant manual micromanagement of daily budgets for time-limited promotions. Pairing that feature with a clear revenue objective, prioritized seasonal keywords, and an explicit pacing plan lets you:

• Use your full budget efficiently over the promotion window without overspending.
• Capture high-intent traffic peaks (e.g., early-January Dry January searches) while protecting ROAS.
• Reduce operational workload so teams focus on creatives, landing pages, and optimizations.

Why total campaign budgets matter in 2026 for seasonal PPC

In 2026, Google formally made total campaign budgets available beyond Performance Max, enabling Search and Shopping campaigns to run against a defined total for a date range. That change matters because it:

• Matches human workflows: Promotions are planned around windows (holiday, back-to-school, Dry January). A single total budget aligns spending to the window, not to an arbitrary daily cap.
• Leverages machine learning: Google’s pacing algorithms smooth learning and peak days to hit the total without manual daily shifts.
• Reduces waste: Prevents underspend early in the window (missed opportunities) and overspend that can erode ROAS late in the window.

Set a total campaign budget over a defined period and let the platform optimize spend — it’s now a best practice for short-term seasonal campaigns.

The common problem with daily budgets

Marketers often face three recurring issues: (1) underutilized spend when daily budgets are too conservative, (2) overspend on high-cost days that burns the budget early, and (3) constant manual intervention while learning phases reset. A total campaign budget converts those headaches into a single controllable parameter tied to business goals.

Dry January PPC case study: objectives, setup, and target metrics

This case study is a composite of real campaigns run in early 2026 and industry trends. The fictional brand, ClearSip, is a mid-market non-alcoholic beverage retailer launching a Dry January promotion across Search and Shopping from January 1–31, 2026.

Campaign objectives

• Primary: Drive incremental online revenue of $120,000 in January.
• Secondary: Acquire new customers for the subscription program, with an LTV of $180 within 12 months.
• Target CPA for promo conversions: $30 (first-order conversion)
• Target ROAS: 4x on paid search spend (gross revenue / ad spend)

How we set the total budget (simple formula)

Start from the revenue target and work backward to ad spend using your target ROAS.

1. Revenue goal = $120,000
2. Target ROAS = 4x
3. Total campaign budget = Revenue goal / Target ROAS = $120,000 / 4 = $30,000

That $30,000 becomes the total campaign budget for the 31-day window, applied at the campaign level. Note: if you plan multiple campaigns (branded, non-branded, shopping), allocate the $30k across those campaigns based on historical channel mix and expected conversion velocity.

Recommended campaign architecture for Dry January

In practice you’ll run a small set of targeted campaigns under the total budget umbrella. Example split for ClearSip:

• Search - High-intent (transactional) — 45% ($13,500)
• Shopping / Merchant — 30% ($9,000)
• Search - Awareness & consideration (informational, brand) — 15% ($4,500)
• Remarketing and retention — 10% ($3,000)

Each campaign uses a total budget equal to its slice of the $30k; Google will pace spend within each campaign over the date range.

Pacing strategies: control vs. automation

Even when using total budgets, you need a pacing strategy. In 2026, platforms are better at smoothing spend, but human decisions still matter. Choose one of these pacing profiles depending on your objectives:

• Even pacing — Good for brand awareness and sustained presence. Minimizes spikes and ensures coverage across the month.
• Front-loaded — Use if early-January volume is decisive (many Dry January searches occur in week 1). Capture the early surge and optimize quickly.
• Back-loaded — Use for last-minute offers, clearance, or when you plan to amplify with email or in-store events late in the month.

Recommended for Dry January: a hybrid front-loaded approach. Data from beverage category campaigns in 2026 shows a significant search volume spike in the first 10 days of January as people set goals and buy substitutes. We recommend allocating 40–50% of the search and shopping slices to the first 10 days, with the remainder paced evenly for the rest of the month.

How to implement pacing with total campaign budgets

1. Set the total campaign budget for the date range in Google Ads (Search/Shopping/Performance Max as applicable).
2. Use ad scheduling to increase bid adjustments (e.g., +10–20%) during high-intent hours/days in week 1.
3. Deploy seasonality adjustments and conversion value rules for the first 10 days to tell the algorithm expected uplift.
4. Monitor daily but avoid reactive cuts; adjust only if CPA deviates >20% from target after 72 hours of live data.

Keyword prioritization: what to bid on for Dry January

Prioritizing the right keywords reduces waste and increases conversion velocity. Use a tiered approach by intent and value:

Tier 1 — High-intent transactional (priority 1)

• Keywords: "buy non alcoholic beer", "non alcoholic wine delivery", "NA beer pack sale"
• Why: Strong purchase intent, high conversion rates; usually higher CPCs but better ROI.

Tier 2 — High-commercial informational (priority 2)

• Keywords: "best non alcoholic beers 2026", "sober curious drinks pack", "Dry January deals"
• Why: Users are comparison-shopping but still close to purchase; lower CPCs than Tier 1.

Tier 3 — Awareness & consideration (priority 3)

• Keywords: "benefits of Dry January", "how to do Dry January"
• Why: Good for top-of-funnel but lower conversion rates—use for subscription funnel nurturing with lower bid caps.

Seasonal and long-tail modifiers to add

• Temporal: "January", "2026", "this week"
• Behavioral: "sober curious", "alcohol-free alternatives", "low calorie"
• Commercial intent: "discount", "pack", "bundle", "free shipping"

Practical keyword rules

• Prioritize long-tail combos that include purchase signals (buy, order, delivery) — these tend to have lower competition.
• Use negatives aggressively (e.g., "how to quit drinking" if you don’t offer clinical support) to reduce wasted clicks.
• Bid higher on branded + Dry January queries (high likelihood to convert) and track brand terms separately.

Creative and landing page alignment — don’t waste intent

Matching ad copy and landing page to search intent is non-negotiable. For Dry January promotions:

• High-intent ads should link to product pages or promo bundles with clear pricing and a visible Promo Code field.
• Informational ads should route to content-rich pages with product CTAs and an email capture to convert interest into lower-funnel buys.
• Use dynamic text and ad customizers to display countdowns and remaining bundle stock for urgency.

Conversion benchmarks to aim for (mid-market ecommerce, 2026):

• Search transactional landing pages: 3–6% conversion rate
• Shopping feed pages: 2–5% conversion rate
• Informational/content pages + email capture: 0.5–2% immediate conversion; higher downstream LTV

Forecasting expected ROI — practical scenarios

Use three scenarios to set expectations: conservative, realistic, aggressive. We keep formulas simple and show where assumptions affect outcomes.

Inputs (ClearSip example)

• Total campaign budget = $30,000
• Average order value (AOV) = $45
• Conversion rate (CR) varies by scenario
• Target ROAS = revenue/ad spend

Scenario formulas

Revenue = Conversions x AOV. Conversions = Clicks x CR. Clicks = Spend / CPC. We simplify by using average CPA when helpful.

Conservative

• Avg CPA = $40 → Conversions = 30,000 / 40 = 750
• Revenue = 750 x 45 = $33,750
• ROAS = 33,750 / 30,000 = 1.125x (not profitable vs target)

Realistic

• Avg CPA = $25 → Conversions = 30,000 / 25 = 1,200
• Revenue = 1,200 x 45 = $54,000
• ROAS = 54,000 / 30,000 = 1.8x

Aggressive (optimized creative + high-intent focus)

• Avg CPA = $12 → Conversions = 30,000 / 12 = 2,500
• Revenue = 2,500 x 45 = $112,500
• ROAS = 112,500 / 30,000 = 3.75x (close to our 4x goal when factoring subscription LTV)

Real-world campaigns usually fall between realistic and aggressive if you prioritize high-intent keywords, optimize landing pages, and leverage remarketing. If subscription LTV applies (e.g., $180), include projected repeat value: 750 first-orders x $180 LTV = $135k incremental lifetime revenue that drastically improves paid media economics.

Measurement framework and campaign reporting (post-campaign audit)

Your performance report should answer: Did the total budget hit the revenue and audience goals? Include these sections:

1. Spend vs. planned total budget (by campaign slice)
2. Conversions, CPA, and ROAS by keyword group (Tier 1/2/3)
3. Incremental revenue vs. control period and cannibalization analysis
4. Top search queries and negatives discovered
5. Attribution adjustments and assisted conversions (cross-channel impact)
6. Customer acquisition cost vs. 12-month LTV

Example insight: "Search high-intent delivered 62% of conversions at 48% of spend — increase budget slice next year." That’s the kind of clear directional recommendation your stakeholders need.

Advanced optimizations for 2026

Several 2026 trends affect seasonal PPC playbooks:

• Better total budget automation: Platforms improved pacing and learning — expect less overspend and more full-budget use if you set appropriate conversion targets.
• Agentic AI and creative automation: Use AI-assisted ad variations to test headlines referencing Dry January & 2026 quickly; feed top performers into Search and Shopping campaigns.
• Omnichannel measurement: With retailers integrating in-store pick-up or online, measure how in-store pick-up or retail trials influence online conversions. Deloitte and Digital Commerce data in 2026 confirmed omnichannel is a top priority for retail growth.
• First-party data & privacy: Use CRM lists and subscription audiences to prioritize high-LTV prospects and bid more aggressively for them. Protect user data and consider server-side validation and secure tagging for reliability.

Real-world example: in early 2026, some retailers using total campaign budgets on promotions reported traffic increases without ROAS degradation; this shows the approach works when execution is aligned.

Step-by-step checklist to launch a Dry January total budget campaign

1. Define the revenue and LTV goals for the promotion window.
2. Choose target ROAS and compute total budget (Revenue / ROAS).
3. Build campaign architecture and allocate budget slices (Search high-intent, Shopping, Awareness, Remarketing).
4. Upload product feed (if applicable) and ensure merchant/GA tagging is live.
5. Enable total campaign budget with start/end dates in Google Ads.
6. Set pacing profile (front-loaded hybrid) and apply ad scheduling & seasonality adjustments.
7. Launch prioritized keyword lists (Tier 1–3) and negative lists.
8. Prepare landing pages with matching intent and dynamic CTAs; set up tracking and server-side validation if needed.
9. Monitor first 72 hours; allow learning. Adjust only if CPA deviates >20% or traffic is anomalous.
10. Run post-campaign audit and compute incremental ROI including LTV estimates.

Common pitfalls and safeguards

• Don’t turn off learning too early — frequent resets harm automation.
• Watch for query drift — add new negatives daily to reduce waste.
• Don’t assume unit economics are static — factor shipping, promo discounts, and returns when calculating ROAS targets.
• Avoid spreading budgets too thin across dozens of campaigns — fewer, well-structured campaigns are more manageable with total budgets.

Final takeaways

Setting a total campaign budget for Dry January (or any seasonal window) removes much of the day-to-day chaos and makes your paid search predictable and measurable. Combine that capability with a clear pacing profile, prioritized seasonal keywords, matched landing pages, and a disciplined audit to hit revenue goals and protect ROI. In 2026, platforms have the automation to use your full budget intelligently — but success still depends on the human strategy that feeds that automation the right signals.

Get started: action plan & offer

Ready to convert this into an executable plan for your brand? Use the checklist above as your sprint plan. If you want a jumpstart, we provide a Dry January keyword pack, pacing templates, and a free 30-minute audit to align budget, creative, and measurement. Book a slot to convert seasonal intent into predictable revenue.

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